Retirement Living News

April 2009

HEADLINES  (Click on headline to read story)

• Popular Retirement Cities Seeing High Foreclosure Rates
• Florida Loses Its Popularity As a Retirement Destination
• Brookings Report Projects Significant Senior Growth in Key States
• AARP Report: Effect of the Economy on Housing Choices
• Report Lists Best and Worst States for Nursing Homes

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NEWS STORIES

Popular Retirement Cities Seeing High Foreclosure Rates 

Many cities, once hailed as great retirement destinations, are now experiencing high foreclosure rates. According to a February report from RealtyTrac, a California firm that tracks foreclosures, Las Vegas reclaimed the title of foreclosure capital of the country for cities with a population of 200,000 or more. The city's foreclosure rate of one filing for every 60 households was seven times the national average. The Reno-Sparks area ranked eighth with one filing for every 108 households. 

In Nevada, there were 15,783 foreclosure filings in February, a 9 percent increase over January when there were 14,444. The state had one filing for every 70 households. 

Nationwide, foreclosure filings rose 6 percent from January to February and nearly 30 percent from February 2008. 

Arizona ranked second in foreclosure filings with one filing for every 147 households with Phoenix ranking ninth. California was third with one filing for every 165 households. Six cities in the state were in the top 10. To check foreclosure listings in your area or an area where you would like to go, visit http://www.realtytrac.com/.
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Florida Loses Its Popularity As a Retirement Destination

Between 2006 and 2007, transplanted residents accounted for 79 percent of Florida's population. That trend may soon be history, according to a report by the Florida Legislature. "After decades of leading other states in attracting retirees, Florida has lost its leading position over the last three years," said Kathy Marma, spokeswoman of AARP in Florida. She said that Florida has been supplanted by the states of North Carolina, Texas and Arizona as top destinations for retirees.

That could be a very serious problem for the Sunshine State, since immigration of seniors is one of its main economic engines. The average retiree contributes $2,000 more in revenues to Florida than what he or she consumes in services, according to a report titled The Tough Choices: Update 2009 by the Leroy Collins Institute at Florida State University. For wealthier retirees the margin is higher. 

But that immigration "has cooled very, very dramatically," Marma added. Just a few years ago, the numbers told a different story. According to a 2006 U.S. Census projection, Florida's 62-plus population was projected to grow 77 percent between 2005 and 2030, to reach 7.7 million, or 27.1 percent of the total population. But that was "when the nation's economy was still on the upswing," Marma said. At a recent meeting of the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference (representing the Florida Governor's Office, the state House, the state Senate and the Economic and Demographic Research office), economists predicted that Florida population growth will be essentially flat through 2010, according to the AARP. Click here to read the Tough Choices: Update 2009 report. 
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Brookings Report Projects Significant Senior Growth in Key States

Migration across states and metro areas has slowed considerably in the past two years due to the housing crisis and looming recession. About 4.7 million people moved across state lines in 2007-2008, down from a historic high of 8.4 million people at the turn of the decade. Population growth has dropped in Sun Belt migration magnets such as Las Vegas, Nev., and Riverside, Calif., and the state of Florida actually experienced a net loss of domestic migrants from 2007 to 2008. Meanwhile, out-migration has slowed in older regions such as Chicago and New York. Many Midwestern and Northeastern cities experienced greater annual population gains, or reduced population losses, in the past year. 

However, a new report from the Brookings Institution titled Getting Current: Recent Demographic Trends in Metropolitan America, says that the baby boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) will begin to inflate the ranks of the 65-and-over crowd during the next decade. The social and economic needs of the "boomer seniors" will likely differ sharply from boomer proclivities of the past. It states that the increase in the size of the senior population will rise everywhere, including places that are unaccustomed to housing large numbers of older people.

The next decade promises massive growth of the senior population, especially in suburbs unaccustomed to housing older people. As the first wave of baby boomers reaches age 65 in less than two years, the senior population is poised to grow by 36 percent from 2010 to 2020. Their numbers will grow fastest in the Intermountain West, the Southeast, and Texas, particularly in metro areas such as Raleigh, N.C.; Austin, Tx.; Atlanta, Ga.; and Boise, Idaho that already have large pre-senior populations (age 55 to 64). Because the boomers were the nation's first fully "suburban generation," their aging in place will cause many major metropolitan suburbs- such as those outside New York and Los Angeles-to "gray" faster than their urban counterparts. 

Many metropolitan areas and states without a history of rapid senior growth will thus begin to experience issues that go along with the trend. But even states with relatively low senior growth levels in the next decade could be overwhelmed. New York and Pennsylvania, for instance, will exhibit the lowest rates of senior growth among all states, but at 23 percent growth rates from 2010 to 2020, they will far surpass their senior growth rates from the previous decade. 

Based on a Brookings' analysis of Census Bureau population projections for 2010 to 2020, the following states will have the greatest growth in their 65-plus population:

The current economic climate may cause some of the leading-edge boomers to delay retirement for a couple of years, says the Brookings' report, until their 401(k) plans recover a bit. "Regardless, a wide range of U.S. metro areas will face a tsunami of senior growth in the next decade. The detached, car-dependent suburban communities that we built for boomers and their families three and four decades ago are not particularly well-equipped to accommodate these individuals in their golden years," concludes the report.
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AARP Report: Effect of the Economy on Housing Choices

A three-phase study sponsored by AARP gathered information on how the economic recession has affected the housing situations and decisions of baby boomers. The study, published in February, included an omnibus survey conducted in September 2008, focus group research conducted in November 2008, and a combined qualitative/quantitative survey conducted in December 2008. 

Respondents shared how the economic downturn has resulted mostly in "holding back" from making housing changes. Some are trying to sell their home or are putting off selling or buying a home (and in some cases moving). Most have delayed making home modifications and improvements and have decided to "sit tight" until it seems a better time to move forward. While most respondents were not in dire housing situations, a few were experiencing housing difficulties as a result of the economy related to job loss. 

The September 2008 omnibus survey was conducted by Opinion Research Corporation with 1,016 respondents ages 45-64. In Phase II, respondents ages 45-64 participated in two focus groups in November 2008. The combined qualitative/quantitative study was conducted by Phi Power in December 2008 among 104 adults ages 44-62. Detailed findings are presented separately for each phase of the study. To download a copy of the study, click here. 
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Report Lists Best and Worst States for Nursing Homes

Last December, the federal government began giving nursing homes overall ratings from one star (lowest) to five stars (highest). U.S. New and World Report has taken the data a step further. In its "America's Best Nursing Homes" rankings it has refined the data and has identified the 10 states that have the largest number of five-star homes and the 10 states with the lowest percentage. Alaska is at the top, but it has a small number of homes; three fewer five-stars would have dropped the state off the list. Louisiana ranked at the bottom and has just nine five-star homes. The average for all states is 11.9 percent.

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